INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY
Dr. Minh Ha-Duong, Dr. Nguyen Thanh Nhan, Dr. Tran Mai Kien
17-19 August 2010
INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
DECISION ANALYSIS FOR THE VERY LONG RUN: OPTIMIZATION VERSUS SCENARIOS
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (CCS)
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION STRATEGY
RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VIETNAMESE POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION
FLEXIBILITY MECHANISMS, KYOTO AND BEYOND

1. INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Dr.Minh Ha-Duong

 This lecture began with an overview of how the Earth’s climate is changing already. This included arctic ice melting, global warming, greenhouse gases and causality.

The expected impacts of climate change were then discussed, including three non-intervention emissions scenarios. Professor Ha-Duong noted that adaptation is already necessary and discussed the risks of larger, faster climate change.

Ways to reduce CO2 emissions were then discussed, with Professor Ha-Duong noting that emissions need to be reduced as soon as possible. The current barriers to reductions in emissions are economic and political rather than technological – reductions are feasible with existing technologies.

Professor Minh then discussed the “many meanings of carbon value”, as well as focuses on price and quantity of carbon, and the various estimation and measurement challenges in this field.

2. DECISION ANALYSIS FOR THE VERY LONG RUN: OPTIMIZATION VERSUS SCENARIOS
Minh Ha-Duong

Professor Ha-Duong first discussed knowledge and ignorance. Ignorance was divided into: “errors” including probability (risk), imprecision (uncertainty) and incompleteness (unknown unknowns); and “human dimensions” including psychological and social dimensions, as well as strategic dimensions. Then Standard Expected Utility Maximization was discussed. This included: decision criteria; utility maximization; information and options; and limits of the standard model.

Finally the Art of Scenario Making was discussed. Scenarios were described as being: multidisciplinary (holistic); having long time frames (past, present and future) and allowing for uncertainties, tipping points and signposts. In summary, scenarios provide an analysis tool for strategic decision making, a common frame of reference, they warn about possible surprises and increase sensitivity to early warnings.

3. CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (CCS)
Minh Ha-Duong

This lecture began with an overview of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). CCS is a new technology, and a new market, as well as a climate policy option that would involve projects in communities.

Next the economics of CO2 markets and CCS were overviewed. This included a discussion of the costs along the CCS chain, capture methods, transport options and costs, storage costs and uncertainties.

CCS risks were then investigated with the conclusion that CCS is risky, but that these risks are manageable.

Next a case study of Total’s Lacq project in France was examined, with a focus on the social aspects.

Finally the case for CCS in Vietnam was canvassed.

4. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION STRATEGY
Dr Tran Mai Kien
18 August 2010

Dr Kien first discussed climate change impacts for the Lower Mekong Delta and the Mekong Delta. This discussion included questions about how these impacts and potential impacts can affect natural and socio economic systems and development. Dr Kien noted that the Mekong Delta is already suffering, and will be one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change.

Next, Vietnam’s climate change history and future prospects were discussed.

The steps involved in adaptation planning followed, including advice on assessing the impacts of climate change on the economy, ecosystems and social systems.

Finally Dr Kien discussed the Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) of the Mekong River Commission. The CCAI is a collaborative regional initiative of the lower Mekong Basin countries. It aims to support countries in adapting to the impacts and new challenges of climate change.

5. RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VIETNAMESE POWER SYSTEM EXPANSION
Dr. Nguyen Thanh Nhan

The lecture is divided into 5 main parts: 1. Renewables: an option for sustainable development, 2. Renewables trend in Southeast Asia, 3. Vietnam power sector grows fast, but less renewable, 4. Integrated resource planning (IRP) model. 4. Integrated resource planning (IRP) model and 5. Results with and without renewable energy, including Fossil fuels expected to be dominant, renewables can avoid installing 4.4 GW in additional fossil fuels capacity and bring co-benefits

6. FLEXIBILITY MECHANISMS, KYOTO AND BEYOND
Dr. Nguyen Thanh Nhan

Through the lecture, the participants had chance to discuss with him on five main sections, including Global action is needed; Typical policies, measures, and instruments for GHGs emissions mitigation; International climate change agreements; The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Carbon Market; and 8 proposal to improving the Clean Development Mechanism post-2012: A developing country perspective.